Wednesday, August 26, 2026 RSS
News Markets & Finance Aug 25 CAPITAL

RBC's Atlassian Start Is Not Nvidia Beta

RBC Capital initiated Atlassian on August 25 with a $215 price target. Shares closed at $166.49, down 2.8 percent. Nvidia reports the next afternoon. Syndication places those facts in one paragraph; the public record does not show a software-sector event study connecting them.

BC Capital's Matthew Hedberg initiated coverage of Atlassian on August 25 with a Buy rating and a $215 price target. At the close, TEAM traded at $166.49, down 2.82 percent on the day. Nvidia is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the close on August 26. Those three facts are true. The sentence that welds them into a software-sector recovery driven by Nvidia earnings anticipation is a syndication habit, not a measurement. The wire already has a bullish Atlassian story that does not need a GPU calendar. In its Q4 fiscal 2026 shareholder letter, dated August 6, Atlassian reported $1.8 billion of quarterly revenue, up 28 percent year over year; cloud revenue of $1.2 billion, up 31 percent; subscription ARR of $6.6 billion, up 23 percent;…

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Edition · briefing

Upfront

Filed · Wed, Aug 26, 5:01 AM UTC

  • Hormuz Still Closed Iranian media said Wednesday that Tehran–Muscat talks on a temporary corridor must not be read as a reopening; Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tuesday the Strait stays shut under Iranian control, and Kpler data showed only five commodity vessels transited Tuesday — well below the 10-day average of 15.

  • The Corridor Framework Iran and Oman issued a Tuesday joint statement for a temporary joint navigational corridor plus a joint demining project, with technical talks continuing toward permanent administration of the waterway — language that tracks the June U.S.–Iran memorandum while leaving tolls, coordinates, and military exclusion unresolved.

  • The Mine Clearance Split President Trump said Tuesday the U.S. Navy had removed or detonated every mine in international Hormuz waters and vowed any vessel laying new ones would be "immediately and systematically destroyed"; JMIC the same day kept a SEVERE threat rating and said mine danger areas remain active as Muscat and Tehran pursue their own clearance track.

  • Oil's Corridor Discount Brent traded near $86.71 a barrel early Wednesday — down about 2.1% and extending Tuesday's 3.9% settle to $88.58 — as traders priced Iran–Oman corridor talks softer than Operation Economic Outcast; WTI traded near $80.65.

  • The Ottawa Mirror Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced Tuesday dollar-for-dollar, rate-for-rate counter-tariffs on about $27.6 billion of U.S. goods — 15/25/50% duties effective Sept. 8 — plus $7.5 billion in worker and business supports after Canada–U.S. talks collapsed.

  • The Ratcliffe Shuttle CIA Director John Ratcliffe landed in Moscow on Tuesday aboard a U.S. Air Force C-17 for roughly four hours of unannounced talks — the highest-level Trump administration visit since January — after Washington asked Kyiv to pause strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg through Wednesday.

  • Storm Shadow at Home President Zelensky confirmed Tuesday that Britain and France unlocked Ukraine's domestic production of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, with London clearing MBDA to share classified component data; the Kremlin condemned the blueprint transfer as pouring fuel on the fire.

  • The Embassy Rebound The State Department said Tuesday it is restoring staffing at Middle East posts evacuated for the Iran war — full levels for Israel, Jordan, and Oman; 85% caps for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Lebanon; 75% for Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain — a signal Washington sees lower near-term escalation risk even as Hormuz stays contested.

Markets & finance · levels

Markets

Snapshot · Aug 26, 2026, 5:01 AM UTC · vs 5-day average on the map · ETF board · extended prints 20

Below 5d In line Above 5d halftone · vs 5-day avg
  • S&P 500 SPY · New York

    764.99

    -0.12% day -0.05% 5d avg
  • Dow DIA · New York

    534.84

    -0.07% day +0.42% 5d avg
  • Nasdaq QQQ · New York

    709.16

    -0.22% day -0.33% 5d avg
  • Canada EWC · Toronto

    62.64

    0.00% day +0.80% 5d avg
  • Mexico EWW · Mexico City

    77.74

    -0.14% day +1.48% 5d avg
  • Brazil EWZ · São Paulo

    35.86

    -0.06% day +2.74% 5d avg
  • UK EWU · London

    49.21

    -0.36% day +0.62% 5d avg
  • Germany EWG · Frankfurt

    44.45

    0.00% day +0.68% 5d avg
  • France EWQ · Paris

    46.91

    0.00% day -0.15% 5d avg
  • South Africa EZA · Johannesburg

    72.50

    -0.01% day +1.51% 5d avg
  • Japan EWJ · Tokyo

    95.00

    -0.66% day +0.06% 5d avg
  • Korea EWY · Seoul

    179.74

    -0.23% day +1.58% 5d avg
  • Hong Kong EWH · Hong Kong

    23.20

    0.00% day +0.31% 5d avg
  • China MCHI · Shanghai

    55.63

    +0.93% day +0.56% 5d avg
  • Taiwan EWT · Taipei

    105.00

    -0.38% day +0.61% 5d avg
  • Australia EWA · Sydney

    30.43

    0.00% day +1.20% 5d avg
  • New Zealand ENZL · Auckland

    48.90

    -0.22% day +0.81% 5d avg
  • India INDA · Mumbai

    50.22

    -0.02% day +1.12% 5d avg
  • Indonesia EIDO · Jakarta

    12.79

    0.00% day +1.04% 5d avg
  • Malaysia EWM · Kuala Lumpur

    28.75

    0.00% day +0.58% 5d avg

Edition · desks

World

Briefing · Wed, Aug 26, 5:02 AM UTC

  • Auckland, New Zealand Local 17:02 · Wed · working now Auckland's Wednesday afternoon is still a mobility-pricing story: councillors are advancing three peak congestion-charge options that could hit $2–7 a trip, with equity warnings that low-income workers absorb the hit first. Overnight oil easing and softer U.S. yields nudged the kiwi higher even as Canada's retaliatory tariff package keeps risk appetite uneven into the Asia close.

    NZ Herald — congestion equity · Newstalk ZB — $2–7 options · interest.co.nz — oil, NZD, tariffs

  • Sydney, Australia Local 15:02 · Wed · working now Sydney's Wednesday session is an inflation read-through: July headline CPI cooled to 3.5% while the trimmed mean held at 3.6%, leaving the RBA's upside-risk case intact even as miners and Woolworths cushioned the ASX. Soft FY27 guidance from WiseTech and softer crude weighed on tech and energy sleeves as traders waited on Nvidia and Warsh.

    ABS — July CPI · Trading Economics — ASX · TS2 — Woolworths / WiseTech

  • Tokyo, Japan Local 14:02 · Wed · working now Tokyo's Wednesday tape is a BOJ-pricing market: July services inflation accelerated to 3.6%, and a Reuters poll majority now expects a September lift toward 1.25%. The Nikkei extended gains as softer oil cooled near-term inflation fears, with SoftBank and Advantest leading while traders still treat tonight's Nvidia print as the AI demand check.

    InvestingLive — services CPI · Reuters poll — September hike · Trading Economics — Nikkei

  • Seoul, South Korea Local 14:02 · Wed · working now Seoul opened with the KOSPI back above 6,700 as Samsung and SK Hynix bounced on easing oil and Nvidia anticipation, even after last week's selloff on the record shareholder-return package. Mirae kept a 370,000-won Samsung target, arguing memory remains supply-favored, while foundry chatter about full 4nm runs for Nvidia's Grok-3 LPUs kept the AI sleeve in focus.

    Businesskorea — KOSPI open · Seoul Economic Daily — Mirae Samsung · EDAILY — Grok-3 foundry

  • Shanghai, China Local 13:02 · Wed · working now Shanghai's Wednesday lift is a policy-watch bounce: the Composite edged higher as traders eyed the NPC Standing Committee session through Thursday for growth support after soft data. China Merchants Bank's floating overnight-repo note underscored the PBOC's push to re-anchor short-term funding, while tech stayed choppy into Nvidia.

    Trading Economics — Shanghai / NPC · Trading Economics — CMB repo note

  • Taipei, Taiwan Local 13:02 · Wed · working now Taipei's Wednesday macro prints look like an AI factory floor: TIER manufacturing confidence hit a four-year high and industrial production jumped 25.6% year on year as computers and electronics surged on server demand. The local tape still waits on Nvidia after the close to validate whether TSMC's capacity push keeps earning its premium.

    Taipei Times — TIER confidence · Taipei Times — industrial production · Motley Fool — Nvidia / TSMC

  • Hong Kong, China (SAR) Local 13:02 · Wed · working now Hong Kong's Wednesday morning is a compliance premium story: Beijing's draft cross-border anti-corruption law, submitted Tuesday to the NPC Standing Committee, puts luxury property, trusts, and complex corporate structures under sharper mainland recovery scrutiny. The Hang Seng firmed with mainland policy hopes even as the city remains the obvious offshore node for any asset chase.

    SCMP — anti-graft draft · Trading Economics — Hang Seng

  • Manila, Philippines Local 13:02 · Wed · working now Manila is trading the peso and the Gulf: the PSEi slipped back below 6,200 on Tuesday as Iran-risk headlines and a soft peso near ₱61.80 kept foreign sellers in charge. Thursday's BSP decision is the next local catalyst, with a hold widely expected while inflation and FX leave little room to ease.

    BusinessWorld — PSEi slide · Radar PH — peso near ₱61.80 · Manila Times — BSP watch

  • Singapore, Singapore Local 13:02 · Wed · working now Singapore's Wednesday factory print beat the Street: July manufacturing rose 7.1% year on year, with electronics up 13.1% on server-related output even as economists still flag a softer second half. The STI's bank-heavy structure remains the market's concentration risk after Tuesday's 1% advance led by Seatrium and the local lenders.

    Business Times — July IP · Business Times — STI banks weight · Business Times — Tuesday close

  • Jakarta, Indonesia Local 12:02 · Wed · working now Jakarta is back from the holiday with a fiscal and food dual: Finance Minister Purbaya says the Whoosh high-speed rail takeover lands in September after heavy first-half losses, while chili and shallot spikes remind traders how quickly local inflation can reappear. The rupiah reopened soft toward Rp17,730–17,750 as IDX liquidity returned.

    Jakarta Post — Whoosh takeover · Aktualita — rupiah reopen · PIHPS — food prices

  • Bangkok, Thailand Local 12:02 · Wed · working now Bangkok's Wednesday is an investor-conference open: Thailand Focus 2026 kicked off with finance and energy ministers pitching a SET that has risen nearly 30% year to date, while the MPC meets with a 1% hold widely priced. The index hovered near 1,604 as foreign-flow hopes for the three-day event did the early work.

    Bangkok Post — Thailand Focus · SET — index / event · Kaohoon — MPC hold watch

  • Mumbai, India Local 10:32 · Wed · working now Mumbai is open through Eid with a settlement holiday: BSE and NSE trade normally while clearing pauses, keeping liquidity quirks front of mind after Tuesday's soft open on oil and Iran risk. An ET analysis of the worst two-year Sensex stretch since 2012 frames the deeper malaise even as commodity desks stay fully open on MCX.

    Economic Times — Eid settlement holiday · Economic Times — two-year returns · Financial Express — MCX open

Markets & finance · instrument

Flight Deck

Read top to bottom: regime and instruments (risk score, implied sleeve flows, Fed liquidity, breadth, macro gauges), then decision surface (which stories the market is pricing and whether cross-asset relationships are strained). Flow bars estimate the dollar value each sleeve gained or lost on the day (fund assets × return) — not investor deposits or withdrawals. Liquidity impulse is a weekly H.4.1 print (Fed BS − TGA − RRP) labeled with its Wednesday window — not an overnight flip. Reserve calm/tight is a same-day SOFR−IORB cross-check and does not replace the impulse.

Snapshot · Aug 26, 2026, 5:04 AM UTC · FMP tape + FRED macro

Risk environment

65 /100

Liquidity

Steady

−$3.5B impulse · weekly Aug 12→Aug 19

Fed BS runoff

Flows

Inflow

net across board

Breadth

Broad

82% above 200DMA

Risk-On
Capital flow map implied move · AUM × day return · vol vs 20d norm
  • US equities SPY
    +$2.6B 0.6×
  • Nasdaq QQQ
    +$3.0B 0.6×
  • Small caps IWM
    +$342M 0.8×
  • Equal-weight S&P RSP
    −$72M 0.8×
  • Semiconductors SMH
    +$1.1B 0.7×
  • Energy XLE
    −$687M 1.0×
  • Long Treasuries TLT
    +$520M 1.0×
  • Agg bonds AGG
    +$655M 0.7×
  • Gold GLD
    +$509M 1.2×
  • Bitcoin ETFs IBIT
    +$108M 1.4×
  • T-bill cash SGOV
    $0 0.9×
Liquidity weekly Aug 12→Aug 19
Contracting Expanding

Steady −$3.5B confirmed

H.4.1 window · Aug 12→Aug 19 · Fed BS runoff

Intraweek estimate −$44.8B · Fed BS accruing since Aug 19

Components

  • Fed BS weekly −$14.3B as of Aug 19 · +7d accrual −$14.3B
  • TGA daily · DTS −$10.3B weekly Aug 19 · DTS Aug 24
  • RRP daily −$408M window Aug 12→ Aug 19

Reserve stress · same-day check

Reserves calm SOFR−IORB 0bp · SRF +$1M

SOMA holdings · NY Fed

+$4.1B week to Aug 19

Participation · S&P +0.32% , 82% above 200DMA

  • Mega-cap +0.32%
  • Avg stock -0.07%
Macro tape
  • 10Y treasury

    4.70%

    ↓ -4bp

  • Broad dollar

    118.06

    ↓ -0.19

  • VIX

    15.46

    ↓ -0.39

  • S&P vs 200DMA

    +8.18%

    stretch

Decision surface

Each card is a market story. Fund is belief from news and fundamentals; Tape is what prices are doing; Blend mixes the two. A Fund–Tape gap means story and market disagree. vs Prior marks confirming / fighting bellwethers — not a forecast. Stress scores cross-asset relationship strain, not drawdown size.

narratives · relationship stress · report 2026-08-19, generated Wed, Aug 19, 5:07 PM UTC
  • Composite

    35%

  • Session

    20%

  • Weekly

    46%

  • Structural

    48%

  • AI Capex Supercyclesector

    72%blend

    Fund78%
    Tape62%

    Tape NVDA -0.24%, QQQ -0.03%, SMH -1.13%

    vs Prior Fighting NVDA, SMH

  • Reflation / Dollar Debasementmacro

    70%blend

    Fund75%
    Tape63%

    Tape GLD +3.48%, UUP -0.84%, TLT +1.29%

    vs Prior Confirming GLD, UUP · Fighting TLT

  • Soft Landingmacro

    29%blend

    Fund5%
    Tape66%

    Tape HYG +0.21%, XLF +0.01%, IWM +0.68%

    vs Prior Confirming HYG, IWM

  • Energy / Inflation Premiummacro

    80%blend

    Fund85%
    Tape73%

    Tape USO +1.79%, XLE +0.27%, GLD +3.48%

    vs Prior Confirming USO, XLE, GLD

Edition · wire

Headlines

  • AI Capex Talent Drain OpenAI's data-center chief exit lands as another high-profile departure during the densest AI infrastructure buildout in tech history. The story sits beside Kalshi's $1.12 billion private raise — risk capital is still flooding prediction markets and AI compute even as executive churn at OpenAI raises execution questions for hyperscale power and land deals.

  • North America Tariff Mirror Canada's retaliatory package and U.S. talk of further measures keep the continental trade fight live even as some analysts float a pullback. Retail and consumer names already feel brand and tariff noise — Target's costume-driven slide is a reminder that equity tape can punish soft power as fast as hard duties.

  • Iran Sanctions Versus Corridor Hopes Treasury's squeeze on Iran's trade partners runs alongside oil's corridor-discount selloff and Guardian analysis that Tehran's Hormuz leverage may be eroding. Markets are pricing diplomacy softer than physical control — a dangerous gap if talks stall while secondary sanctions bite China-linked flows.

  • Corporate Compliance Settlements Deloitte's $21.5 million settlement with the administration over alleged discriminatory DEI practices signals how quickly federal contracting and civil-rights enforcement can reprice Big Four risk. Compliance desks will treat it as a template threat for other professional-services firms still unwinding DEI programs.

  • Asia Growth And Auto Safety Indonesia's growth ambitions are drawing economist pushback just as Tesla gets pulled into China's recall machinery — two Asia stories where state capacity and industrial policy collide with private execution. Luxury Hong Kong rents rising on expat inflows add a third thread: capital still prefers safe-harbor cities even when regional growth narratives fray.

Market News

  • Retail Earnings Hangover Dick's Sporting Goods' Foot Locker-linked plunge and Target's appearance among session decliners keep consumer discretionary under pressure into a busy earnings week. Brand and integration risk are trading like macro — soft prints get no benefit of the doubt while shoppers still face sticky services inflation.

  • Canadian Banks Hold the Line BMO's beat and Scotiabank's strong quarter give the Canadian bank complex a firmer earnings floor even as North American trade tensions escalate. Cross-border lenders remain a read-through for continental credit demand if tariffs bite capital spending.

  • AI Software and Power Tape RBC's Atlassian initiation, Snowflake's momentum, Zoom's solid print, and Roth's higher nVent target sketch the same AI stack: collaboration software above, power and cooling kit below. The market is still paying for infrastructure that ships electrons to racks, not just tokens to models.

  • Hard Assets and Energy Signal Gold Fields' operational resilience after a miss and Borr insider buying keep precious metals and offshore drilling on the radar while crude softens on Hormuz corridor hopes. Physical-asset stories are diverging from paper energy risk premium.

  • Payments and Consumer Brands Global Payments' higher price target and Nike's turnaround coverage show analysts still hunting quality compounders outside the megacap AI complex. Those names will trade the Warsh/PCE week as rate-sensitivity stories as much as company-specific ones.

Sector Rotation

Where the tape is moving

S&P 0.00% · 5d -0.41% · 21d +3.38% · cap-weighted sleeves · equal-weight names · P/E

Sectors

  • Tech Split

    XLK -0.21%

    1. 1d -0.21%
    2. 5d -1.24%
    3. 21d +6.00%

    names -0.02% PE 43× dear

    Information Technology Services +3.06%

  • Comm Fade

    XLC +0.04%

    1. 1d +0.04%
    2. 5d +1.72%
    3. 21d +3.25%

    names +0.03% PE 20× cheap

    Entertainment +2.16%

  • Disc Fade

    XLY +0.36%

    1. 1d +0.36%
    2. 5d -0.19%
    3. 21d +5.24%

    names +0.08% PE 67× dear

    Auto - Recreational Vehicles -3.23%

  • Staples Fade

    XLP -0.02%

    1. 1d -0.02%
    2. 5d -0.05%
    3. 21d -0.64%

    names -0.58% PE 35× dear

    Tobacco -2.81%

  • Finance Fade

    XLF -0.05%

    1. 1d -0.05%
    2. 5d +1.39%
    3. 21d +1.18%

    names +0.64% PE 22× cheap

    Investment - Banking & Investment Services +5.43%

  • Energy Split

    XLE -0.30%

    1. 1d -0.30%
    2. 5d -2.68%
    3. 21d +7.48%

    names -1.03% PE 17× cheap

    Oil & Gas Integrated +4.62%

  • Health Fade

    XLV +0.03%

    1. 1d +0.03%
    2. 5d -0.19%
    3. 21d +4.83%

    names +0.39% PE 23×

    Medical - Equipment & Services -5.16%

  • Industrials Fade

    XLI +0.03%

    1. 1d +0.03%
    2. 5d -1.92%
    3. 21d -2.21%

    names -0.19% PE 19× cheap

    Engineering & Construction -4.52%

  • Materials Fade

    XLB +0.03%

    1. 1d +0.03%
    2. 5d +2.05%
    3. 21d +2.40%

    names -0.16% PE 25×

    Chemicals -1.32%

  • REITs Fade

    XLRE +0.04%

    1. 1d +0.04%
    2. 5d +0.87%
    3. 21d -1.37%

    names +1.66% PE 39× dear

    Real Estate - Development +7.26%

  • Utilities Split

    XLU +0.14%

    1. 1d +0.14%
    2. 5d -1.48%
    3. 21d -4.72%

    names +0.80% PE 29× dear

    Independent Power Producers +1.12%

Fault lines

  • Semis Fade

    SMH +0.03%

    1. 1d +0.03%
    2. 5d -0.88%
    3. 21d +4.98%

    Semiconductors -0.16%

  • Regionals Split

    KRE +0.08%

    1. 1d +0.08%
    2. 5d -0.81%
    3. 21d -3.13%

    Financial - Mortgages +4.92%

  • E&P Split

    XOP -0.13%

    1. 1d -0.13%
    2. 5d -2.06%
    3. 21d +9.70%

    Oil & Gas Equipment & Services -0.75%

  • Defense Fade

    ITA 0.00%

    1. 1d 0.00%
    2. 5d -4.81%
    3. 21d -4.36%

    Aerospace & Defense +0.46%

  • Miners Fade

    GDX +0.07%

    1. 1d +0.07%
    2. 5d +8.49%
    3. 21d +42.29%

    Gold +3.24%

  • Builders Split

    XHB +0.18%

    1. 1d +0.18%
    2. 5d -1.53%
    3. 21d -2.80%

    Paper, Lumber & Forest Products -0.95%

Grind = same direction across horizons Split = session fights the month Names = equal-weight average of stocks in the sector, not the ETF

Edition · arts

Culture

Latest · Aug 26, 5:30 AM UTC

  • Carnival Week in London Notting Hill's 60th anniversary weekend is the mass-culture center of gravity: ticketed Panorama on Saturday, Children's Day on Sunday, Adults' Parade on Monday. Millions will treat west London as a temporary Caribbean capital — the rare festival that is simultaneously heritage, sound-system culture, and city logistics stress test.

  • UK Festival Twin Bill Reading and Leeds open Thursday and run through the Bank Holiday as the UK's loudest pop-and-rock twin site. Headliner density — Charli XCX through Florence and Chase & Status — makes the weekend a national youth-culture pilgrimage before Carnival takes London.

  • Desert City Versus Wildfire Burning Man remains on for Aug. 30–Sept. 7 even as the Hawk Fire complicates Reno approaches. The story is cultural logistics: tens of thousands still intend to build temporary city life in the Black Rock Desert while Northern Nevada recovers from one of the summer's worst blazes.

  • Labor Day City Circuit Across the U.S., Labor Day culture is a city circuit: Brooklyn's West Indian Day Parade, Seattle's Bumbershoot, Detroit's free jazz fest, and Chicago's ARC. These are not niche billings — they are the weekends people rearrange travel and work for.

  • Festivals Closing and Opening Edinburgh Fringe winds down as MUTEK keeps Montréal in electronic-arts mode and Venice prepares to open the Lido. Late August is the hinge between summer street culture and autumn festival prestige — both lanes are live this week.

01

Iran Reroutes Trade. Dollar Finance Still Clears.

02

Ottawa Priced Reliability Over a Tariff Pause

03

Sanctions Monday Splits Asia Tech and Energy

04

Nvidia's $91B Print Meets a Sanctions Discount

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News Aug 23 PLATFORM

Nvidia's Boom Turns Cloud Vendors Into Utilities

UBS estimates that three hyperscalers will spend 102% of cloud revenue on capital expenditure in 2026. Cloud growth is accelerating, yet cash flow is weakening because suppliers recognize hardware sales now while platform owners must recover the cost through years of utilization.

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News Aug 20 CAPITAL

Buybacks Bridge Seoul and the Long Bond

SK Hynix will buy and cancel ₩40 trillion of its own stock. The largest treasury cancellation in Korean listed history landed the morning after Treasury doubled long-dated buybacks. Two cash bids, one session: a patch across the long bond and memory — not a smaller stock of risk.

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Aug 23 PLATFORM

AI Isn't Replacing Stars. It's Erasing the Crew.

Planet Money asked who gets paid when an AI model trains on a catalog. The sharper labor question is who still gets hired to make the next one. Producers fear sameness more than replacement. The people losing hours are junior engineers, lighting techs, and festival crews — the middle that trained the stars.

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Aug 23 LABOR

Ukraine Is Short of People, Not Capital

Ukraine's most sought-after hire is a 60-year-old electrician. That is not a silver economy. It is a country short of people, asking whoever remains to be worker, soldier, and parent at once. Partners are funding skills and roadmaps. None of them supplies the missing generation.