The Inflation Print Was Good. Nobody Told the Bond Market.

Polo floods the Southwest and Plains Remnants of Hurricane Polo are driving life-threatening flash floods, rescues, road closures and evacuations across Arizona and New Mexico, while dam-failure fears and a broader multi-day deluge threaten the Plains and Midwest.

Southeast Asia floods expose infrastructure risk Flooding across Thailand has affected 2.6 million people and disrupted Bangkok’s transport and economy, while neighboring Myanmar faces deadly and expanding flood emergencies.

Bihar embankments breach The Gandak, Kosi, Bagmati and Sone rivers remain swollen after rain and upstream discharge from Nepal; breached embankments have inundated villages and farmland as relief operations continue.

Nepal flood survivors face a long emergency Survivors of Nepal’s August flash floods remain in fragile temporary shelters with damaged roads, precarious sanitation and scarce medical care months after the disaster.

Flood risk returns to devastated regions Renewed heavy rain threatens already devastated Rio Grande do Sul, where hundreds of thousands were displaced by catastrophic flooding and a coming cold snap could endanger people without power.

West African floods displace communities River Dayi flooding has displaced thousands in Ghana’s Volta Region, while persistent rain continues to submerge homes, schools, businesses and roads across Nigeria’s Rivers and Delta states.

Super El Niño raises global risks A potentially very strong 2026–27 El Niño is amplifying linked risks of extreme heat, drought, flooding, wildfire, food stress and water disruption; researchers project roughly 451,000 excess heat deaths through February 2027.

Indonesia fires become a regional haze crisis Indonesia’s prolonged dry season has driven peatland and rainforest fires whose toxic haze is spreading across Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines while drought strains water, agriculture and firefighting.

Ebola response expands as Congo transmission persists The Bundibugyo-virus Ebola outbreak remains active across seven provinces and 63 health zones, with intense transmission in hotspots and major treatment, staffing, security and funding needs.

Cholera and war deepen a health emergency Cholera deaths reported for 2025 reached the highest annual level since 1999, while renewed Yemen fighting is worsening displacement, hunger, unsafe water and the risk of cholera, dengue and measles.

Multiple outbreaks keep health systems under pressure Clade I mpox, measles, dengue and respiratory-virus activity remain uneven but active across multiple regions, keeping fragile health systems under pressure.

Cuba infrastructure failures fuel a health emergency Cuba’s prolonged water and power failures are contributing to the spread of viruses in Havana, where fuel shortages and infrastructure collapse leave residents without running water for days or weeks.

US exit leaves Iraq facing a security test The United States has completed its withdrawal from remaining Iraqi bases, reviving fears that Iran-backed militias or Islamic State could exploit a security vacuum while Washington remains at war with Iran.

Iran war keeps energy and shipping under strain The unresolved U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping, sanctions and oil markets, with disrupted routes pushing oil above $100 and raising transport costs.

Ukraine’s energy war widens into Europe Russia has launched its largest attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since spring, hitting 11 regions, killing civilians and renewing fears of winter power and heating outages.

Gaza violence continues despite the nominal ceasefire Israeli attacks killed at least seven people in Gaza on September 30 despite the nominal ceasefire, while more than 450 displacement camps face flooding risks and access restrictions obstruct aid and shelter preparation.

Myanmar airstrikes deepen the Rakhine crisis A reported Myanmar military airstrike near the Bangladesh border killed 50 people and wounded dozens, while fighting around Sittwe is displacing civilians and reinforcing warnings that refugee returns remain unsafe.

Tigray fighting threatens a wider Ethiopian war Renewed fighting around Alamata and across Tigray, Amhara and Afar has killed civilians, wounded more than 700 people and disrupted banking, communications and humanitarian access, raising fears of wider Ethiopian war.

Sudan ceasefire diplomacy collides with partition fears Sudan’s proposed ceasefire faces resistance amid partition fears, while roughly 33 million people need assistance and about 20 million face acute food insecurity as external arms support remains under scrutiny.

M23 keeps eastern Congo unstable M23 and other armed groups continue fighting government forces in eastern Congo despite diplomacy and ceasefire verification, keeping displacement high and aid access obstructed.

Sahel militant violence intensifies Violence by Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliates is intensifying across the Sahel, compounding displacement, food insecurity and humanitarian pressure as state authority and aid access weaken.

Yemen fighting drives mass displacement and hunger A new Yemen escalation has displaced nearly 134,000 people, including an estimated 73,000 children, while deaths, injuries, hunger and child illness deepen across the country.

South Sudan power-sharing collapse raises election-war risks South Sudan’s president dissolved the transitional power-sharing government ahead of planned elections, concentrating authority amid a stalled peace process and renewed conflict risks.

Grenfell investigation reaches charging-decision stage British police have submitted the Grenfell Tower investigation file to prosecutors for possible corporate manslaughter, gross-negligence, safety, fraud and misconduct charges over the 2017 fire that killed 72 people.