Rising Breakevens Make the Oil Rally a Duration Problem for War Markets

Iran, Hormuz and Gulf war risk Washington says a strike on Iran is not imminent but keeps military action and a deal in play, while Tehran warns of an unprecedented response and says Hormuz’s security and management will not return to pre-war norms; U.S.-backed escorts have kept most shipping moving, but the standoff still threatens energy flows and regional escalation.

Saudi–Houthi escalation and aviation chokepoint Saudi Arabia says it intercepted missiles aimed at the kingdom and struck Houthi launchers, tunnels and depots after claimed attacks on Riyadh airport and oil infrastructure; King Khalid International has only partly reopened after two weeks, with foreign airlines still suspending service and debris injuring two people.

U.S. troops attacked in Iraq and Syria An Iran-backed militia drone struck a barracks at Erbil air base without detonating but injured one service member, amid at least 40 recent attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria; the incidents widen the risk that the Iran confrontation becomes a broader regional war.

West Bank and Gaza escalation Israeli raids, demolitions and restrictions have forced roughly 2,500 people from Hebron, while Gaza strikes continue during a nominal ceasefire and nearly 950,000 displaced people remain in sites at medium or high flood risk as food support is reduced.

Ukraine’s winter infrastructure crisis and talks Russian strikes have damaged energy facilities in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Chernihiv, causing casualties and outages as winter approaches; Kyiv says it would halt strikes if Moscow stops targeting power infrastructure, while November trilateral talks offer an opening but no settlement.

Northern Ethiopia conflict and spillover Renewed fighting and reported shifts in Tigray are worsening a severe humanitarian emergency, while mutual accusations between Ethiopia and Eritrea and Tigrayan counterattacks raise the risk of the conflict widening into interstate war.

Haiti violence and displacement Armed violence outside Port-au-Prince has displaced more than 20,000 people in less than a month, including communities in Arcahaie and Petite Rivière de l’Artibonite; fragile services and funding shortfalls are struggling to keep pace.

Sudan war and famine risk War, aid obstruction and damaged harvests have pushed 19.5 million people—41% of Sudan’s population—into acute food insecurity, including five million at emergency levels; severe acute malnutrition could exceed 825,000 children without urgent access and food assistance.

Cross-border Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak The DRC outbreak has reached 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths across eight provinces, with imported cases now detected in Kenya and Nigeria and sustained high-level transmission; Nigeria is following 53 contacts linked to its confirmed case.

Measles and arbovirus resurgence Measles cases in the Americas are up 4.8-fold from the same period of 2025, with 81 deaths, while Bangladesh has reported 208,570 suspected cases and 22,840 confirmed cases amid a dengue surge; vaccination, hospitals and vector-control systems remain under pressure.

East Africa floods and displacement Flooding across Somalia and Kenya has affected about 2.5 million people, with 334,000 displaced in southern Somalia and roughly 100,000 affected by Kenyan flash floods and landslides; rising rivers, damaged roads and weak funding are straining response capacity.

El Niño’s global humanitarian stress test A strong El Niño is amplifying drought, heat, wildfire, flooding and cyclone risks, with Pacific temperatures forecast up to 3.8°C above average between November and January; agencies warn food, fuel, freight and fertilizer shocks could push up to 50 million more people toward hunger.

Nigeria flood emergency Flooding has affected more than 673,000 people across 28 states, killed 245 and displaced nearly 215,000; damaged infrastructure and disease risks complicate preparation for additional climate stresses.

Paraná Basin flooding The Paraná and Uruguay rivers have affected more than 4,200 Paraguayan families, while nearly 2,300 people have left homes in Argentina after river rises and a breached embankment; damaged bridges and downstream waves could force further evacuations.

Cyclone Arnab threatens India’s east coast A Bay of Bengal deep depression has intensified into Cyclone Arnab and could cross the Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe storm with winds of 115–125 km/h; Odisha has escalated preparations and heavy rain is also affecting Tamil Nadu.

Southeast Asian flooding Thailand’s prolonged floods continue to affect millions across multiple provinces and Bangkok, with reported deaths as high as 162 and more than 1.4 million affected households; further rain and high tides threaten to prolong inundation.

Sri Lanka floods and landslides Floods, landslides and strong winds have killed 12 people, affected 10,311 and damaged infrastructure across 22 districts; more heavy rain is forecast, keeping access and recovery risks active.

Northern Europe storms Back-to-back storms Austen and Boelo have killed people, cut power to more than 400,000 British homes cumulatively and disrupted hospitals, communications, airports, ferries and railways across several countries; flood warnings and repairs remain active.

Indonesia–Malaysia–Singapore haze Severe drought and El Niño-driven fires in Indonesia are spreading unhealthy smoke across Southeast Asia, prompting school closures and protests in neighboring countries; Indonesia’s latest reporting puts burned land near 896,000 hectares, with respiratory and aviation risks ongoing.

Super Typhoon Champi aftermath Champi killed one person and injured more than 600 in Taiwan, affected hundreds of thousands of households and disrupted transport and power across Taiwan, Okinawa and Japan; its remnants are bringing strong winds, rain and high waves toward western Japan.

Four Corners flooding Severe rain, hail and a tornado have triggered evacuations, rescues and impassable roads across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah; saturated ground and the San Juan River’s highest crest since 1935 keep further surges and access hazards active.

Panama earthquake recovery and flood risk After the magnitude-7.5 Azuero Peninsula earthquake, more than 35,000 people have been affected and over 5,000 remain in shelters; heavy rain and landslide warnings are complicating recovery while schools remain closed.

Brazil’s Lula wins fourth term Lula defeated Flavio Bolsonaro in a closely contested runoff after heavy rain and transport failures extended voting by two hours, securing an unprecedented fourth term but facing a divided electorate and difficult governing conditions.

Serbia’s student movement victory A student-backed anti-corruption movement won a projected outright parliamentary majority, with Aleksandar Vučić conceding after 14 years of SNS rule; its lack of an established governing team leaves Serbia’s next direction unsettled.